Market Overview - An Interview with Rob Enderle

Rob Enderle, President of the Enderle Group, talked about the latest technology trends and how it influences the High Definition Computing and Mobile markets. Rob shared?his?knowledge with the VTF2006 audience in the High Definition Platforms Technology Track on June 7 and the Ultra Mobility Technology Track on June 8. Some of?his insights are?provided in this?comprehensive interview with VIA

High Definition Platforms

Q1: How is Microsoft(r) Windows Vista(tm) affecting the requirements and expectations for someone going out to purchase a new Desktop PC?

Rob: It is hard to tell as hardware requirements have not been fully disclosed, but my understanding is they will favor discrete video but not require high end processors.? With the delay, for now, it appears to be having little impact, however, in the 4th quarter it may cause people to defer purchases or buy systems that come with a Vista upgrade as part of the offering.

Q2: In 2006 what technologies do you think will define the High Definition platform?

Rob: Cable Card for access to content, HDMI for high definition output, large hard drives to contain store the information, and a method to distribute it out to other rooms in the home.

Q3: What are the major challenges for the High Definition platform in 2006?

Rob: Ease of Use, Content, Distribution and Solution Cost remain the hurdles to overcome for a successful offering.? The iPod and Sonos for Music define what the market is looking for in terms of experience it is now up to the vendors to meet these requirements and deliver a product that can meet these market?expectations.

Q4: What do you view as some exciting technologies on the High Definition horizon?

Rob: LED lit LCD displays providing long service life and adequate brilliance for even well lit rooms,?HDMI systems which eliminate the cabling complexity and make installing these products easy an simple to use, High Definition Game systems which provide yet another reason to get high definition displays by broadening their use, High Definition IP TV using delivery mechanisms like BitTorrent for high speed delivery of content, and ever lower cost high performance PC systems that can address effectively the overall solution cost.

Ultra Mobility

Q1: Recently there has been a lot of discussion regarding a new class of devices called UMPC or Ultra Mobile PC. Perhaps you can give us an overview of what you feel this new category UMPC encompasses?

Rob: In its ultimate form it is a blending of a laptop computer, a portable media center, and a smart phone into a new class of device which has entertainment as a primary function but can be used effectively for communication and work when necessary.

Q2: How will this new UMPC category fit in with the more traditional desktop and notebook PC segments?

Rob: Ideally it doesn't, it defines a new class and of users, those that favor portability but still want a rich entertainment experience and need a full featured machine from time to time.?These are forward looking individuals with their eye on the future looking for something more personal, something more unique, something that better defines who they are then what they typically would get from any of the devices this new category replaces.

Q3: Certainly a lot of the attention for the UMPC category has come with the launch of Microsoft Origami. What are your thoughts so far on the Origami initiative, and the Origami devices released?

Rob: Like many things from Microsoft this effort is not yet complete and it favors a vendor who has the vision to complete it.?It needs a keyboard, it needs integrated wide area wireless, it needs a strong set of accessories and it needs a set of unique entertainment based services to make it compelling.? Much of this doesn't exist yet but, the right company could complete the offering.

Q4: For the PC architecture in the past most of the hype has always been around "feeds and speeds". Now with the UMPC category we are seeing more focus on things like weight, form factor, heat dissipation, security, and especially battery life. How do you view VIA's UMPC platform for this new catagory?

Rob: VIA may be uniquely qualified to lead in this area as their solution almost seemed to anticipate this device.

With adequate performance coupled with low heat output, integrated security and media capabilities, and an aggressive price VIA may be the only hardware platform vendor able to provide the core technology to both hit the price point and hit the performance point the platform requires to be successful.

Q5: What do you see as the future for UMPC devices?

Rob: Something vastly more personal than it currently is.?A product that not only represents our window into the world of information but a way to contact, and be contacted by, those we need to be close to. A collaboration tool that is as unique as the person who caries it, that can supplement and help us share memories, that can entertain us and warn us danger, that can summon help when we need it and guide us to those that need our help, a device that helps identify us and protect our identity.? In the end, a device that becomes a large part of who we are and what we will become.