High Definition Computing Trends - An Interview with Jon Peddie

In this comprehensive Q&A with Jon Peddie of Jon Peddie Research, we put the spotlight on the subject of High Definition Computing. Jon will be further expanding on his views in his presentations at the High Definition Computing Technology Tracks at VTF2004 Taipei and Beijing. Be sure not to miss him!

Jon Peddie Q&A

Q1: What do you see are the most important technology trends in the High Definition Computing Market?

JON: High Definition means high bandwidth, high quality, and high performance. You've got to have all three or you can't call your product High Definition; and I'm not just talking about HDTV but all high-definition products, especially PC products. The graphics and video controllers and the monitors are just this year showing the ability to deliver a reliable, high definition high precision display at prices the average consumer can afford. This is happening due to our old friend Moore's law, and the economy of scale we can realize in the PC business.

Q2: How quickly do you think that PCI Express will be adopted by the industry? How long do you think it will take before the technology enters the mainstream?

JON: PCI Express will be fully deployed (i.e., found in over 95% of PCs) on the desktop by the end of 2006. Although a fantastic boost in intra-communications for the PC, it will only have application to those users who really need high performance. That rules out 50% of the desktop systems that ship with integrated graphics and a conventional disk drive. Deployment in the laptop will be similar. PCI Express enables super high speed graphics, two very fast card slots on a mobile computer, Serial ATA, and gigabit Ethernet. Most of those features are not needed by the average user, so PCI Express will not be an immediate benefit for the mainstream. However, because Intel, Dell, HP, Microsoft, Nvidia, ATI, 3Dlabs, VIA and others will promote it so heavily, users will buy PCI Express machines. One argument driving the sales will be the idea of future-proofing your PC, and PCI Express certainly does that.

PCI Express is also a disruptive technology -- it's not backwards compatible, so some people will feel that they have to make a shift. However, disruptive usually means lots of opportunity!

Q3: What do you see as the most important drivers for end market demand in the High Definition Computing Market? Some industry observers believe that new generation games such as Far Cry and Doom 3 will drive an upgrade cycle among enthusiasts and gamers. Others point to so-called entertainment PCs and Media Center PCs. Who is right? Or will both categories prove popular?

JON: Yes, yes, and yes. All those answers are correct. High Definition computing open up the user's understanding of how inadequate his current computer is. In a recent survey it was found that consumers planning to buy a new computer want it to be better and expect to pay more for it. That shows there is a built in demand for High Definition Computing. Those consumers want better image quality for looking at and editing their photos, for watching TV, for playing games (i.e., Far Cry), and they want high definition audio too.

Q4: You have been coming to Computex and VTF for a number of years now. How do you think that Taiwan's role in the PC industry has changed in that period?

JON: Taiwan, if you can categorize an entire nation without offending someone, has moved from being a collection of manufacturing companies that only seemed to know: "How many, how much," to a genuine technology leader. Taiwan leads the world in semiconductor manufacturing, in semiconductor design, in innovative and amazing subsystems for PCs, mobile phones, and DVDs, and is a leader in miniaturization and integration.

Taiwan is a nation of engineers, but I don't think the country is properly recognized for it. Perceptions take a long time to change.

Q5: What do you think Taiwan's motherboard, notebook, and PC makers need to do in order to remain competitive in the future? Which particular segments of the High Definition Computing market do you think offer the most interesting opportunities for them?

JON: Motherboard, notebook, and PC makers will continue to shrink the packages while adding more features and somehow maintaining prices. However, with the tremendous gains made in sub-micron semiconductors, allowing millions of transistors to be put in a single chip in a space no large than the last generation of parts which had less transistors, a new problem appears: heat. The challenge will be to continue to miniaturize systems whilst evacuating the heat created by denser, more power chips packed ever closer together.

The most interesting opportunities in High-Definition Computing will be in mobile computers, which are becoming more and more popular as an entertainment platform. Not just for their convenience but because (again due to Moore's law) so much power is being packed in to these portable devices. Obviously the entertainment PC is another rapidly growing area, and again the issues are quality, performance, and price. The consumers are not stupid, and if you advertise high-definition, you better be able to show it.